Confirmed previous forecast
-0.054636
Relative Brier Score
285
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 7 | 21 | 300 | 285 | 1231 |
| Comments | 2 | 4 | 45 | 39 | 117 |
| Questions Forecasted | 7 | 7 | 19 | 15 | 89 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 73 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
93%
(0%)
U.S. Entity
80%
(0%)
Non-U.S. Entity
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-1%)
Yes
Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026
99%
(+1%)
No
Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Going a bit down because no recent positive developments for this one.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Might change because of sudden events or a change of Israeli policy.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-6%)
Yes
96%
(+6%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Going further down as we're coming to the end of the year.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There might be a last minute rule to codify the recent H200 to China approval.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026
98%
(0%)
No
Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
93%
(0%)
U.S. Entity
80%
(0%)
Non-U.S. Entity
Confirmed previous forecast
Files