Confirmed previous forecast
-0.094389
Relative Brier Score
144
Forecasts
39
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 21 | 303 | 278 | 1224 |
| Comments | 0 | 3 | 43 | 37 | 115 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 7 | 19 | 15 | 89 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 73 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
New Prediction
Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
93%
(0%)
U.S. Entity
80%
(0%)
Non-U.S. Entity
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 26, 2025 to May 26, 2026
98%
(0%)
No
Nov 26, 2025 to May 26, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 26, 2025 to May 26, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 26, 2025 to May 26, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-15%)
Yes
90%
(+15%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Running out of time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There are still some regulations waiting that could easily be quickly released.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 26, 2025 to May 26, 2026
98%
(0%)
No
Nov 26, 2025 to May 26, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
93%
(0%)
U.S. Entity
80%
(0%)
Non-U.S. Entity
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files