Confirmed previous forecast
-0.123458
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 3 | 10 | 287 | 10 | 1255 |
| Comments | 0 | 2 | 37 | 2 | 120 |
| Questions Forecasted | 3 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 90 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 73 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will any national government publicly declare that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has been achieved within that country by 31 July 2026?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
93%
(0%)
U.S. Entity
80%
(0%)
Non-U.S. Entity
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
99%
(+4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Going further down. I don't see why a nation would do this.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There might be a speech where Trump declares they have AGI.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
93%
(0%)
U.S. Entity
80%
(0%)
Non-U.S. Entity
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The time window is a bit short. This would be within the next six months. I also don't see why a country would benefit from claiming it (unless it houses the company so the US and China seem the most realistic).
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There might be certain diplomatic reasons why it is advantageous to claim it and the definition is vague (but also vague enough to face enough opposition within governments).
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
93%
(0%)
U.S. Entity
80%
(0%)
Non-U.S. Entity
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
