There is no way the EU will go back to buying russian oil, while Putin is increasingly aggresive towards the West
-0.001403
Relative Brier Score
14
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 97 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 24 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 13 | 13 | 57 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The only reason that would change would be a critical crisis on oil prices during this winter
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
U.S. Entity
72%
Non-U.S. Entity
Why do you think you're right?
With the current rate of progress it is very likely that both the US and a non IS actor will be able to produce a AI model that supercedes the number of computational operations performed mentioned.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A stock crash impacting the biggest players in the international market could impede their hability of getting the investment needed for this.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 29, 2025 10:15PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 29, 2025 to Mar 29, 2026
80%
(0%)
No
Sep 29, 2025 to Mar 29, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 29, 2025 10:15PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 29, 2025 to Mar 29, 2026
85%
(0%)
No
Sep 29, 2025 to Mar 29, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The concept of AGI will not be achieved. Although some player in this market might say they have reached this goal.
Why might you be wrong?
We might fall for this trick.