Revmag

Given only 1 death has happened so far, and with the recent intervention by US, these countries won't risk it angering them. And 19 + casualities is too severe for it to happen, given the recent conditions and the alarms raised by other countries.

Q3 is 8.167, and to get to 19 billion, almost a bump of 33% more than Q3 numbers need to be recorded. There is almost no chance of this happening, given the weather is okayish and not too damaging so far.

Very less likely to happen.
Good comment by @Pradeep :
"The RSF, however, faces its own major difficulties. It is still far from Khartoum, with roughly two hundred kilometers of difficult terrain between its current positions and the capital. Before it can approach Khartoum, it would have to move through several large and well-defended cities such as al-Obeid, Bara, Omdurman, or Bahri. Each of these areas would require large amounts of time, manpower, and supplies to secure."

Previous attempts at this have not worked very well so far. And the investments have been coming of in this sector at a rapid pace, and I think US is gonna prioritize rapid pace of innovation more than anything here. Given with techniques like distillation you can just train your small model on whatever that models been trained on, so every measure seems a bit redundant as of now.

The are some angles to this, first one is how exactly getting FDA approval help, and without it, how are others using AI.

So given the tech is seeping it’s way through new applications, rather than finding the thing which actually just really works, no company would want to waste their time on approvals, pre product market fit.

Numbers are very low for this year, with ti hovering at $0.270 billion, and less chances of things changing in 2026 given the current progress, though anything is hard to predict given the nature of these things. Some really big development needs to happen for it to skyrocket in 2026.

Will decrease with time here. Current geopolitical conditions don’t align well for this event to happen anytime soon. And they might even not need one at the moment, so not a great priority for them. And given no news of any such event, so lowering it more.

With the recent release by xAI, it might happen soon, and this field is progressing fast. And other companies will catch up too once an US based entity trains it, as we have seen so far, nothing is a secret for too long in this industry, and it just takes some team to breach the impossible for others to try it.

We don’t have official numbers so far, but suggestions so far indicate this is highly probable.