RAND Forecasting Initiative

0.896146

Relative Brier Score

376

Forecasts

13

Upvotes

Forecasting Activity

Forecasting Calendar

	Past Week	Past Month	Past Year	This Season	All Time
Forecasts	27	27	374	27	1525
Comments	1	1	127	1	175
Questions Forecasted	27	27	73	27	244
Upvotes on Comments By This User	0	0	12	0	42
Definitions

New Prediction

Will any major international non-governmental research funders implement specific policies restricting or requiring oversight of mirror biology research by 31 December 2030?

Revmag made their 6th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

41% (-40%)

Yes

59% (+40%)

No

Why do you think you're right?

Updating based on recent trends.

Files

Why might you be wrong?

Long timelines.

Files

Feb 01, 2026 08:10AM UTC

New Prediction

Will any national government publicly declare that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has been achieved within that country by 31 July 2026?

Revmag made their 2nd forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

1% (0%)

Yes

99% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Feb 01, 2026 08:10AM UTC

New Prediction

Will the United Nations deploy peacekeeping forces to a conflict zone in a new country or territory by 31 July 2026?

Revmag made their 2nd forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

4% (0%)

Yes

96% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Feb 01, 2026 08:10AM UTC

New Prediction

Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?

Revmag made their 5th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

4% (0%)

Yes

96% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Feb 01, 2026 08:10AM UTC

New Prediction

Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?

Revmag made their 5th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

2% (0%)

Yes

98% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Feb 01, 2026 08:10AM UTC

New Prediction

Will the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, a measure of U.S. residential home costs, exceed 350 by July 2027?

Revmag made their 4th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

53% (0%)

Yes

47% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Feb 01, 2026 08:10AM UTC

New Prediction

Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?

Revmag made their 5th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

36% (0%)

Yes

64% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Feb 01, 2026 08:10AM UTC

New Prediction

Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

Revmag made their 3rd forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

2% (0%)

Yes

98% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Feb 01, 2026 08:10AM UTC

New Prediction

Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?

Revmag made their 3rd forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

10% (0%)

Yes

90% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Feb 01, 2026 08:10AM UTC

New Prediction

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

Revmag made their 3rd forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

1% (0%)

Yes

99% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Feb 01, 2026 08:10AM UTC