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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025? -0.000189
Mar 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 28, 2025 and Mar 28, 2025) -0.0002
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024? -0.003262
Dec 28, 2024 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 28, 2024 and Dec 28, 2024) -0.00018
Nov 28, 2024 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2024 and Nov 28, 2024) -0.000026
Jul 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024? -0.000282
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024? 1.383666
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024? -0.000011
Mar 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024? -0.000002
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023? -0.000693
Apr 10, 2023 09:00PM UTC What will be the highest average price recorded for a gallon of diesel in the U.S. between 6 Feb 2023 and 10 Apr 2023? -0.000107
Apr 05, 2023 07:15PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023? -0.001129
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will SpaceX launch Starship into orbit before 1 April 2023? 0.0
Mar 17, 2023 02:12PM UTC Will a European country announce that they are sending fighter jets to Ukraine by 30 April 2023? -0.420393
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023? 0.013729
Feb 01, 2023 06:46PM UTC Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023? -0.000029
Jan 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022? 0.034838
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