Confirmed previous forecast
-0.084523
Relative Brier Score
217
Forecasts
13
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 8 | 23 | 221 | 217 | 514 |
| Comments | 2 | 7 | 103 | 103 | 165 |
| Questions Forecasted | 8 | 23 | 40 | 38 | 86 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 48 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
4%
(0%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
96%
(0%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
46%
(0%)
Less than $350 million
38%
(0%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million
15%
(0%)
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $650 million
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
19%
(0%)
Yes
81%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
88%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
9%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 14, 2025 to Jun 14, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Dec 14, 2025 to Jun 14, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-7%)
Yes
98%
(+7%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
-
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Togo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(-12%)
Yes
92%
(+12%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
-
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Time
Why might you be wrong?
-
Just wondering why you feel necessary to decrease due to time; it's not like we have a fixed cutoff date here which gradually comes closer - our forecasting horizon is held constant 18 months into the future from the day of our forecast.
There is also the recent finding by @geoffodlum below that such an event actually happened in Nov 2024 (with full attribution and everything), only in a different sector (hence not eligible for resolution here), but we learned about it only now, more than one year later...
Just sayin'...