25th
Accuracy Rank

sanyero

About:

Background in consulting, med tech, software. EA.

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2025 Season Stats

-0.099465

Relative Brier Score

209

Forecasts

13

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 15 15 215 209 506
Comments 5 5 101 101 163
Questions Forecasted 15 15 40 38 86
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 13 13 48
 Definitions
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
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New Prediction
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
sanyero made their 9th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (-1%)
Yes
Dec 2, 2025 to Jun 2, 2026
98% (+1%)
No
Dec 2, 2025 to Jun 2, 2026
Why do you think you're right?

Time

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New Prediction
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
sanyero made their 9th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
54% (0%)
Less than 30 days
2% (0%)
30 days
11% (0%)
31-60 days
5% (0%)
61-90 days
28% (0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
sanyero made their 17th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
2% (0%)
Estonia
1% (0%)
Latvia
1% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
How many people will earn research doctorates in microbiology and immunology fields in the U.S. between the 2026 and 2030 academic years?
sanyero made their 3rd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
20% (0%)
Less than or equal to 4,499
22% (0%)
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive
47% (0%)
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive
8% (0%)
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive
3% (0%)
More than or equal to 6,000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?
sanyero made their 3rd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
3% (0%)
More than €0 but less than €10 billion
9% (0%)
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
63% (0%)
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
25% (0%)
€30 billion or more
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
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Time

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