RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2025 07:46PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	14%	3%	+11%	+0%
No	86%	97%	-11%	+0%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2025 07:47PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	9%	2%	+7%	+0%
No	91%	98%	-7%	+0%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2025 07:48PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	3%	3%	+1%	-2%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	88%	96%	-8%	+2%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	9%	2%	+7%	+0%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2025 07:48PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	7%	Oct 31, 2025 to Apr 30, 2027	Jan 31, 2026	6%	+1%	+2%
No	93%	Oct 31, 2025 to Apr 30, 2027	Jan 31, 2026	94%	-1%	-2%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2025 07:48PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	19%	17%	+2%	-3%
No	81%	83%	-2%	+3%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups globally be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2025 07:48PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $1 billion	42%	84%	-42%	+24%
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion	47%	11%	+36%	-18%
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion	10%	3%	+7%	-5%
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion	1%	2%	-1%	-1%
More than or equal to $1.6 billion	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the U.S. be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2025 07:48PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $350 million	46%	43%	+3%	+8%
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million	38%	35%	+3%	+4%
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million	15%	15%	+0%	-8%
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million	1%	5%	-4%	-4%
More than or equal to $650 million	0%	2%	-2%	+0%

Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2025 08:11PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	20%	+10%	+6%
No	70%	80%	-10%	-6%

What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2025 09:09PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 62%	0%	0%	+0%	0%
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%	4%	4%	+0%	-5%
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%	96%	96%	+0%	+5%
More than or equal to 74%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the EU, UK, and Switzerland be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 02, 2025 08:43PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $350 million	35%	28%	+7%	+2%
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million	54%	45%	+9%	+1%
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million	10%	22%	-12%	-2%
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million	1%	5%	-4%	-1%
More than or equal to $800 million	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

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