RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2025 07:46PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	14%	3%	+11%	+0%
No	86%	97%	-11%	+0%

How many people will earn research doctorates in microbiology and immunology fields in the U.S. between the 2026 and 2030 academic years?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 02, 2025 08:44PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 4,499	20%	6%	+14%	-3%
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive	22%	11%	+11%	+0%
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive	47%	76%	-29%	+1%
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive	8%	6%	+2%	+1%
More than or equal to 6,000	3%	1%	+2%	+0%

Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2025 09:14PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	7%	15%	-8%	-3%
No	93%	85%	+8%	+3%

Will any national government publicly declare that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has been achieved within that country by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2025 09:40PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	1%	+1%	-2%
No	98%	99%	-1%	+2%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the EU, UK, and Switzerland be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 02, 2026 10:18AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $350 million	35%	33%	+2%	+3%
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million	54%	45%	+9%	+0%
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million	10%	17%	-7%	-1%
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million	1%	4%	-3%	-1%
More than or equal to $800 million	0%	1%	-1%	-1%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 02, 2026 10:19AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	2%	3%	-1%	+0%
Latvia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Lithuania	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 02, 2026 10:19AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	7%	+1%	+0%
No	92%	93%	-1%	+0%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups globally be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 29, 2026 09:20AM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $1 billion	95%	93%	+2%	+0%
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion	4%	6%	-2%	+0%
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to $1.6 billion	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 29, 2026 09:20AM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	3%	3%	+0%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	88%	96%	-8%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	9%	2%	+7%	+0%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 29, 2026 09:20AM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	19%	16%	+3%	+0%
No	81%	84%	-3%	+0%

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