Confirmed previous forecast
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Relative Brier Score
8
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 8 | 224 | 8 | 526 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 107 | 1 | 172 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 8 | 40 | 8 | 89 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 48 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
46%
(0%)
Less than $350 million
38%
(0%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million
15%
(0%)
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $650 million
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
19%
(0%)
Yes
81%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
88%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
9%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
(+53%)
Less than $1 billion
4%
(-43%)
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion
1%
(-9%)
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion
0%
(-1%)
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.6 billion
Why do you think you're right?
Updating due to recent discussions on significantly lower investment levels
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Why might you be wrong?
-
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
92%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
(0%)
Less than $350 million
54%
(0%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million
10%
(0%)
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $800 million
Confirmed previous forecast
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