RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC	How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?	-0.035845
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?	0.023952
Jun 13, 2025 06:32PM UTC	Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 26, 2024 and Jun 13, 2025)	-0.613664
May 31, 2025 05:00PM UTC	On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?	0.070095
Apr 28, 2025 01:00PM UTC	Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?	0.113891
Feb 14, 2025 06:00PM UTC	What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?	0.459586
Jan 31, 2025 05:00AM UTC	Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?	-0.036991
Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM UTC	In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025)	-0.076667
Jan 11, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?	0.207632
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?	0.001019
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?	0.044263
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?	0.008835
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?	0.164536
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?	0.0105
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?	0.015487
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?	0.050715
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC	By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?	0.079531
Dec 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC	In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 15, 2024 and Dec 15, 2024)	0.172033
Dec 01, 2024 05:01AM UTC	Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?	-0.233805
Nov 30, 2024 04:59AM UTC	Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?	-0.031618

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