162nd
Accuracy Rank

leonardocaus

Leonardo Caus Sampaio
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Forecasted Questions

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(21 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2025 04:18PM UTC
(7 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 2%
No 98% 98%

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(21 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2025 04:20PM UTC
(7 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 0% 0%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 8% 0%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 15% 0%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 36% 2%
Not before 2026 41% 98%

Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 10:08PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 62% 36%
No 38% 64%

Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 01, 2025 01:29AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 30% 2%
No 70% 98%

Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2025 11:35PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 80% 10%
No 20% 90%

Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 07:10PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 8% 13%
No 92% 87%
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