Forecasted Questions
Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 25, 2025 03:48PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Dec 25, 2025 03:48PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 62% | 36% | +26% | -1% |
| No | 38% | 64% | -26% | +1% |
Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 25, 2025 03:50PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Dec 25, 2025 03:50PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 30% | 2% | +28% | +0% |
| No | 70% | 98% | -28% | +0% |
Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 25, 2025 03:50PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Dec 25, 2025 03:50PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 80% | 12% | +68% | +1% |
| No | 20% | 88% | -68% | -1% |
Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 29, 2026 05:55PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Jan 29, 2026 05:55PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 15% | -7% | +0% |
| No | 92% | 85% | +7% | +0% |
Will the Houthis (Ansarallah movement) attack a commercial shipping vessel on the Red Sea between 19 December 2025 and 31 July 2026, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 29, 2026 06:00PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Jan 29, 2026 06:00PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 85% | 75% | +10% | +2% |
| No | 15% | 25% | -10% | -2% |