162nd
Accuracy Rank

leonardocaus

Leonardo Caus Sampaio
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Brazilian economist. Master's student in International Affairs (Cyber Security) at King's College London.

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025? 0.01053
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC By 30 September 2025, will the United States announce its intent to withdraw at least 4,500 troops from South Korea? 0.021474
Sep 06, 2025 12:56AM UTC How many global victims of data-leaking ransomware will there be in August 2025, according to Data Breaches Digest? 0.04505
Aug 12, 2025 03:00PM UTC What will the U.S. annual inflation rate be in July 2025? 0.30218
May 31, 2025 05:00PM UTC On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap? -0.038697
May 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 28, 2025 and May 28, 2025) 0.00448
Mar 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 28, 2025 and Mar 28, 2025) 0.0048
Feb 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 28, 2025 and Feb 28, 2025) 0.003871
Jan 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 28, 2024 and Jan 28, 2025) 0.001084
Dec 01, 2024 05:01AM UTC Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days? -0.174707
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI? -0.133491
Jan 17, 2024 05:00PM UTC How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined? 0.159226
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