GuilhermeRenno

The RSF is unlikely to retake Khartoum from the SAF. The SAF successfully regained control of the capital's key symbolic and political centers in early 2025, while the RSF consolidated power regionally in Darfur, confirming a territorial split. International focus, particularly from the US and Saudi Arabia, centers on halting the conflict's humanitarian toll and preventing regional collapse. Their goal is to pressure a ceasefire, thereby reinforcing the SAF's status as the necessary institution to preserve the Sudanese state, making an RSF recapture unlikely.

Confirmed previous forecast

I believe that the risk of an irreversible attack against a North-American satellite before January first 2027, is significant for the following reasons: firstly, both Russia and China own advanced ASAT technologies and have been using it against US satellites lately, in a higher and higher frequency. This may lead to an accident (a non permanent attack turning into a permanent attack without intention) or a deliberate action, considering how international direct conflicts have been scaling up around the globe and how fragile is the outter space, only protected by old-fashined international treaties; secondly, there is very little transparency by all the countries envolved and irreversible attacks might have happened already but been classified. This might already be a reality but only become public in the following months. 

Confirmed previous forecast

Confirmed previous forecast

Confirmed previous forecast

The low probability of a lethal conflict between China and India is primarily due to a long-standing, tacit agreement to not use firearms in their border disputes. This unique de-escalation mechanism, rooted in a 1996 accord, prevents minor skirmishes from escalating into a full-blown shooting war. By relying on non-lethal methods of confrontation, both nations have established a functional buffer that mitigates the risk of a single incident triggering a wider military response, showcasing a shared and pragmatic desire to avoid a devastating war.

This commitment to de-escalation is currently being reinforced by a new diplomatic thaw, largely motivated by external economic pressures. The recent meeting between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jinping, Modi's first visit to China in seven years, signals a strategic realignment. With both countries facing the economic threat of US tariffs, particularly under the Trump administration, they are finding common ground in strengthening their own economic ties and cooperation. This shared interest in economic stability is a powerful incentive for both nations to maintain peace and manage their border disputes through diplomatic means, underscoring that their mutual economic goals currently outweigh their political rivalries.