GuilhermeRenno

There is a moderate chance of China reaching or exceeding 5% GDP growth in Q2 2026, as the nation successfully navigates its "new normal" of stabilized, high-quality expansion. Surprisingly, the ongoing tariff war with the United States has yielded positive results for China, forcing a rapid acceleration of domestic self-reliance and the diversification of its export markets toward the Global South. Furthermore, China's fierce competition with the US for leadership in the AI race is a critical factor; the integration of artificial intelligence into its massive manufacturing base is expected to yield exponential productivity gains. These efficiency breakthroughs could provide the necessary momentum to push economic growth past current projections.

The RSF is unlikely to retake Khartoum from the SAF. The SAF successfully regained control of the capital's key symbolic and political centers in early 2025, while the RSF consolidated power regionally in Darfur, confirming a territorial split. International focus, particularly from the US and Saudi Arabia, centers on halting the conflict's humanitarian toll and preventing regional collapse. Their goal is to pressure a ceasefire, thereby reinforcing the SAF's status as the necessary institution to preserve the Sudanese state, making an RSF recapture unlikely.

I believe that the risk of an irreversible attack against a North-American satellite before January first 2027, is significant for the following reasons: firstly, both Russia and China own advanced ASAT technologies and have been using it against US satellites lately, in a higher and higher frequency. This may lead to an accident (a non permanent attack turning into a permanent attack without intention) or a deliberate action, considering how international direct conflicts have been scaling up around the globe and how fragile is the outter space, only protected by old-fashined international treaties; secondly, there is very little transparency by all the countries envolved and irreversible attacks might have happened already but been classified. This might already be a reality but only become public in the following months.