Current Legislative Landscape: While there is growing interest in AI security and cybersecurity incentives in the U.S. and UK, no legislative action has yet established specific tax incentives for companies undergoing independent AI security audits. Existing discussions have not translated into concrete proposals that have gained traction, especially regarding AI-specific frameworks.
1.155427
Relative Brier Score
17
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 2 | 19 | 17 | 40 |
| Comments | 0 | 2 | 18 | 16 | 18 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 2 | 18 | 16 | 27 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Emerging Threats and Urgency: If significant cybersecurity threats or incidents involving AI models were to occur, there could be a sudden push for legislative action on security audits, leading to expedited conversations around tax incentives.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
69%
Yes
31%
No
Why do you think you're right?
My reasoning is based on several factors:
Current Trends: There has been an observable increase in regional cooperation among MENA states, driven by shared security concerns and economic interests.
Diplomatic Initiatives: Ongoing diplomatic efforts and dialogues suggest a willingness among some states to collaborate on security issues, which could lead to formal agreements.
External Pressures: The involvement of global powers in the region often pushes states toward multilateral agreements for stability and cooperation.
Historical Precedents: Previous multilateral agreements in the region indicate a capacity for collaboration when circumstances align favorably.
These elements suggest a potential for new security agreements, but while they provide a strong basis for optimism, the situation remains fluid.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There are several reasons why my prediction might be incorrect:
Political Uncertainty: The MENA region is marked by political instability and shifting alliances, which can hinder the formation of new agreements.
Divergent Interests: States may have conflicting national interests that prevent them from reaching a consensus on security matters.
Regional Tensions: Ongoing rivalries and conflicts might overshadow cooperative efforts, making it difficult to establish new security frameworks.
Lack of Trust: Historical grievances and mistrust among states can impede collaboration and the willingness to engage in multilateral agreements.
Influence of External Actors: External powers may have conflicting agendas that complicate negotiations and deter regional cooperation.
These factors highlight the complexities involved in predicting diplomatic developments, making it challenging to ascertain the likelihood of a new agreement by the specified date.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
40%
No
Why do you think you're right?
My reasoning is based on several key factors:
Historical Trends: Analyzing past data from UNCTAD shows that intra-regional trade has been gradually increasing in many regions, including Western Asia and North Africa.
Economic Initiatives: There have been efforts to strengthen economic ties and trade agreements within the region, which can boost intra-regional exports.
Global Trade Dynamics: Changes in global trade policies and supply chain adjustments can drive countries to rely more on regional partners.
Regional Stability: Improvements in political stability and economic conditions can facilitate trade growth.
While I can't predict the future with certainty, these factors provide a strong basis for the belief that intra-regional exports might reach or exceed 24% in the coming years.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There are several reasons why my prediction might be incorrect:
Political Instability: Ongoing or renewed conflicts in the region could disrupt trade and economic cooperation.
Economic Downturns: If the global or regional economy faces a recession, it could negatively impact trade volumes.
Trade Barriers: New tariffs, trade restrictions, or regulatory changes could hinder intra-regional trade growth.
External Dependencies: If countries in the region remain highly dependent on external markets for key exports, this could limit the growth of intra-regional trade.
Data Limitations: Projections are often based on historical data and trends, which may not fully account for sudden changes or unforeseen events.
These factors highlight the inherent uncertainty in making economic predictions, and it's important to consider a range of scenarios.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
21%
(-59%)
Yes
79%
(+59%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Creating a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by January 1, 2035, is a challenging but plausible goal.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
While it's difficult to predict with certainty, the timeline of advancements suggests that achieving a synthetic cell by 2035 is within the realm of possibility, especially if current trends continue.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
60%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Predicting whether the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index will exceed 350 by July 2027 involves several variables
Files
Why might you be wrong?
While it's difficult to make specific predictions, monitoring these factors will provide a clearer picture as the date approaches. The index currently trends upward, but external conditions will ultimately determine its trajectory.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Ongoing Compute Scaling: The trend in AI model training suggests a steady increase in computational requirements. Since 2012, the amount of compute used to train state-of-the-art models has been doubling, typically every 3-6 months. Given the historical pace and the growing demand for more powerful AI models, it's feasible that multiple entities will surpass the
10
27
10
27
FLOPs threshold by mid-2027.
Why might you be wrong?
Development Delays: If there are significant delays in the development or resources required to train models at such scales, entities might not reach the
10
27
10
27
FLOPs threshold before the deadline. Factors could include hardware shortages, regulatory hurdles, or financial constraints.