RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 30, 2024 02:05PM UTC
(11 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	11%	17%	-6%	-17%
No	89%	83%	+6%	+17%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 30, 2025 10:06PM UTC
(10 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	50%	2%	+48%	-4%
No	50%	98%	-48%	+4%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 28, 2025 04:14PM UTC
(9 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	54%	7%	+47%	+0%
No	46%	93%	-47%	+0%

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2025 01:49PM UTC
(7 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 days	0%	67%	-67%	+4%
30 days	0%	6%	-6%	-4%
31-60 days	0%	6%	-6%	-2%
61-90 days	0%	5%	-5%	+0%
91 days or more	100%	16%	+84%	+3%

Will any major international non-governmental research funders implement specific policies restricting or requiring oversight of mirror biology research by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 01, 2025 01:53AM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	50%	47%	+3%	-23%
No	50%	53%	-3%	+23%

Will the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, a measure of U.S. residential home costs, exceed 350 by July 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2025 12:37AM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	40%	57%	-17%	-28%
No	60%	43%	+17%	+28%

Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2025 12:37AM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	21%	10%	+11%	+0%
No	79%	90%	-11%	+0%

Will Western Asia and North African intra-regional exports equal or exceed 24% of total exports in 2025 or 2026, according to UNCTAD data?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 28, 2025 06:16AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	60%	21%	+39%	-6%
No	40%	79%	-39%	+6%

Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 28, 2025 06:17AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	69%	11%	+58%	-6%
No	31%	89%	-58%	+6%

Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2025 03:20PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	20%	-20%	-2%
No	100%	80%	+20%	+2%

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