hasn't happened
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 6 | 54 | 62 | 110 |
| Comments | 0 | 3 | 23 | 25 | 26 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 20 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 1, 2026 to Jul 1, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Jan 1, 2026 to Jul 1, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
hasn't happened
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Moldova
4%
(0%)
Armenia
4%
(0%)
Georgia
4%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-11%)
Yes
Jan 1, 2026 to Jul 1, 2027
100%
(+11%)
No
Jan 1, 2026 to Jul 1, 2027
Why do you think you're right?
Too little time for it to happen
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Too little time for it to happen
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
6%
(0%)
30 days
10%
(0%)
31-60 days
16%
(0%)
61-90 days
61%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 30, 2025 08:07PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2025 to Apr 30, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Oct 31, 2025 to Apr 30, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(+2%)
Moldova
4%
(+3%)
Armenia
4%
(+3%)
Georgia
4%
(+3%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
I realised I need to be more consistent between my forecasts
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I probably overestimate Putin's rationality
Files
Why do you think you're right?
hasn't happened
Why might you be wrong?
hasn't happened