Confirmed previous forecast
0.035291
Relative Brier Score
9
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 62 | 56 | 104 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 22 | 22 | 23 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 13 | 11 | 20 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 30, 2025 08:07PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2025 to Apr 30, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Oct 31, 2025 to Apr 30, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(+2%)
Moldova
4%
(+3%)
Armenia
4%
(+3%)
Georgia
4%
(+3%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
I realised I need to be more consistent between my forecasts
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I probably overestimate Putin's rationality
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
11%
(-16%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2025 to Apr 30, 2027
89%
(+16%)
No
Oct 31, 2025 to Apr 30, 2027
Why do you think you're right?
Lots of time left till apr 2027 and the world is a strange place
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I overupdated on the drones over Poland
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
6%
(0%)
30 days
10%
(0%)
31-60 days
16%
(0%)
61-90 days
61%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Sep 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Three months left this year for the new regulations (those replacing AI Diffusion rule) to be implemented. Seems plausible, but unlikely
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The US govt moves faster than I expect
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 30, 2025 05:01AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2025 to Mar 30, 2026
100%
(+1%)
No
Sep 30, 2025 to Mar 30, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Under the current conditions, CPC's expected payoff of this action appears negative
Files
Why might you be wrong?
My understanding of the motivations and rationality of CPC's leadership is wrong
Files