Confirmed previous forecast
0.215004
Relative Brier Score
28
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 32 | 28 | 95 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 12 | 11 | 16 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 11 | 10 | 18 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Sep 9, 2025 06:55AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 9, 2025 to Feb 9, 2026
88%
(0%)
No
Aug 9, 2025 to Feb 9, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
(+25%)
Yes
35%
(-25%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
The deployment of b2 bombers suggests that Trump is going to make an ultimatum, and I don’t see how the Iranians can meet such a demand.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
TACO
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
60%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I still think this is somewhat unlikely; the Republican coalition is split on this, and, like, TACO. But Trump is unpredictable.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Trump is unpredictable.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
99%
(+4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Clear from the Republican tax bill that the US Congress does not want AI regulation of any form.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I won't be. ;)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Moldova
5%
(0%)
Armenia
8%
(0%)
Georgia
5%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Togo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Estonia
5%
(0%)
Latvia
5%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
