Patrick-Gavin

Patrick Gavin
About:

I suffered from a severe head injury as a child that left me in a coma for a month and then paralyzed after that. I managed to gain most function back. I work in higher education IT.

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jun 13, 2025 06:32PM UTC Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 26, 2024 and Jun 13, 2025) -0.022426
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated? -0.009212
Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024) -0.109455
Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024) -0.086055
Sep 14, 2024 07:00PM UTC Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 14, 2024 and Sep 14, 2024) 0.007459
Aug 02, 2024 05:29AM UTC Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025? -0.097208
Jun 14, 2024 07:00PM UTC Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Jun 14, 2024) 0.002943
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024? -0.000056
Apr 02, 2024 03:00PM UTC Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024? 0.035832
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024? 0.0
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