My bet is they've hit some fundamental ceiling
0.149719
Relative Brier Score
166
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 193 | 166 | 323 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 78 | 68 | 113 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 60 | 53 | 70 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Sep 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Aug 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Badge
New Badge
Star Commenter - Aug 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
72%
Less than or equal to 70
28%
Between 71 and 74, inclusive
0%
Between 75 and 78, inclusive
0%
Between 79 and 82, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 83
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I'm no expert
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
89%
Less than or equal to 66
11%
Between 67 and 70, inclusive
0%
Between 71 and 74, inclusive
0%
Between 75 and 78, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 79
Why do you think you're right?
Based on current rank
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Don't know much about this
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 29, 2025 04:38PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 29, 2025 to Feb 28, 2026
70%
(0%)
No
Aug 29, 2025 to Feb 28, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 29, 2025 04:38PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(-3%)
Yes
Aug 29, 2025 to Feb 28, 2026
95%
(+3%)
No
Aug 29, 2025 to Feb 28, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
NK is getting normalised with CN and RU. They have no incentive for stirring trouble.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Not following this actively
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The Trump cabinet is very much anti regulation
Why might you be wrong?