Just a feeling. No real knowledge.
0.661276
Relative Brier Score
206
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 19 | 156 | 206 | 364 |
| Comments | 0 | 19 | 82 | 98 | 144 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 19 | 69 | 71 | 89 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
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Star Commenter - Dec 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Yes
30%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
See above.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I guess we still know less about cell biology than we think. Just a feeling, no real knowledge.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
See above.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Don't expect research to go so fast. Also don't expect panic, because AI danger and climate change don't seem to bother anyone. Just feeling, no knowledge.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
See above.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Pure availability bias. Have not heard that they are very far. Not based on real knowledge.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
See above.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
There we few restrictions on gain of function research. So I expect simalar passivity here.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Just vibes, no knowledge.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Yes
96%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Following the crowd. Feels likely.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
See above.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
I don’t see any signs of this.
Why might you be wrong?
Just news media info.