RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jun 13, 2025 06:32PM UTC	Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 26, 2024 and Jun 13, 2025)	0.016832
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?	-0.002469
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC	By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?	-0.001449
Dec 01, 2024 05:01AM UTC	Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?	-0.399576
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?	-0.000207
Apr 02, 2024 03:00PM UTC	Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024?	0.001532
Mar 22, 2024 08:00PM UTC	Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 22, 2023 and Mar 22, 2024)	0.0
Feb 26, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will Hezbollah launch a missile that impacts more than 10 kilometers into Israel over the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 26, 2024 and Feb 26, 2024)	0.198823

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