seems like it's likely to happen
0.028677
Relative Brier Score
13
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 14 | 13 | 22 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 8 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 12 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(-7%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2025 to Mar 30, 2027
92%
(+7%)
No
Sep 30, 2025 to Mar 30, 2027
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
more unexpected aggression from either side could increase volatility
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
14%
Yes
86%
No
Why do you think you're right?
negotiations in such a short timeframe I find unlikely to succeed
Files
Why might you be wrong?
if they do it will probably not be a long term deal
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
Less than 30 days
5%
30 days
3%
31-60 days
1%
61-90 days
1%
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
Seems extremely unlikely that at this stage any long lasting agreement that isn't betrayed by Russia is possible
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If Ukraine gets desperate enough, and approval rating of Zelensky rapidly drops it might be possible or if American influence becomes to strong to ignore
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
Yes
93%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
(0%)
Moldova
10%
(0%)
Armenia
40%
(0%)
Georgia
10%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Estonia
6%
(0%)
Latvia
7%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
The frontier is opaque and volatile, and confirmation can lag—a lethal incident before Sept 30 could surface after the deadline, which would still resolve “Yes.” Both sides continue to harden infrastructure and posture forces, creating friction points where a patrol scuffle or misread signal could unexpectedly turn deadly despite de-escalation efforts. U.S. defense assessments also flag the LAC as an area where tensions can “escalate quickly,” so a low-probability tail risk remains.