Confirmed previous forecast
-0.098217
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 7 | 7 | 63 | 56 | 118 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 19 | 18 | 26 |
| Questions Forecasted | 6 | 6 | 13 | 13 | 23 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
1%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
85%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I think there's nearly a 15% chance that the Trump administration, or another one in the world, will falsely claim AGI just to boast about non-AGI AI. only a 2% chance of real AGI.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
probably wrong if governments are less stupid than I assume
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Less than 62%
3%
(-7%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
15%
(-43%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
80%
(+50%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
updated forecast based on other forecasters setting this at 96, I can't easily check data but it sounds like there was an uptick
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I was lazy
Files
Why do you think you're right?
I think this is somewhat likely for China to do if things escalate enough around Taiwan this year
Why might you be wrong?
US-China relations might not be as bad as I think they are