I'm reducing my estimate from 30% to 15% because the time is almost up, 2 months left
-0.164733
Relative Brier Score
102
Forecasts
5
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 49 | 47 | 102 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 17 | 16 | 23 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 14 | 12 | 22 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Iran: Threats & Influence,
Emerging Technology,
Artificial Intelligence
Most Active Topics:
Iran-VNSAs,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Decoding Disinformation,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Russia-Europe
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(-10%)
Yes
80%
(+10%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
could still happen
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 3, 2025 03:43PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 3, 2025 to May 3, 2026
91%
(0%)
No
Nov 3, 2025 to May 3, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
1%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
3%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
10%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
87%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 3, 2025 03:43PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(-35%)
Yes
Nov 3, 2025 to May 3, 2026
95%
(+35%)
No
Nov 3, 2025 to May 3, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
I over-updated from 3% to 40% based on some news articles about Syria, on June; this didn't go anywhere in the last 5 months, so I'm returning to my baseline of 3%, and increasing a little to 5% because there's a new peace with Gaza.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Syria might still take a long while to do this with Israel, and the Gaza war may resume
Files
Why do you think you're right?
it's been very close to 71% so far in the first half of the year, but it's on a downwards trend, so I estimate it'll end at an average of about 69
Why might you be wrong?
it's possible that Q3 and Q4 are both above 70% and then I'll be more wrong (but I'm leaving 31% chance for that to happen)