Confirmed previous forecast
-0.000163
Relative Brier Score
15
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 2 | 15 | 15 | 20 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
16%
(0%)
Yes
84%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 27, 2025 09:30AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Oct 27, 2025 to Apr 27, 2026
99%
No
Oct 27, 2025 to Apr 27, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
I am
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I'm not
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
16%
Yes
84%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Maybe
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe not
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 23, 2025 05:19PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 23, 2025 to Feb 23, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Aug 23, 2025 to Feb 23, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files