So far, Russia has largely relied on conventional tactics such as arson attacks and physical drone incursions instead of integrating its cyber capabilities with direct kinetic actions. Recent provocations involving drones and unauthorized aircraft have already achieved the goal of creating public anxiety and confusion, all while allowing Russia to conceal the full extent of its cyber warfare capabilities. This calculated restraint suggests that Moscow may be holding back its more advanced tools for use in a future phase of escalation or crisis.
-0.000023
Relative Brier Score
11
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 11 | 10 | 14 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
Yes
Oct 31, 2025 to Apr 30, 2027
97%
No
Oct 31, 2025 to Apr 30, 2027
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Poland is experiencing a constant wave of cyber threats, facing between 20 and 50 attempts each day to disrupt or damage its critical infrastructure. One notable incident occurred in August 2024, when Russian-backed hackers tried to disable the water supply system of a major city. Although the attack was successfully stopped, the frequency and sophistication of these operations suggest that it is only a matter of time before one of them succeeds in causing real, physical damage. The growing persistence of such attacks highlights Poland’s vulnerability and the urgent need to strengthen cyber defenses.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Because the U.S. is competing with China in AI, there’s pressure not to make rules that might slow down American companies, even if stricter regulation could improve safety or ethics.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The government might make rules specifically for foreign AI companies especially Chinese ones because of worries that these systems could be a national security risk or give China an advantage in AI.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Implementing such a move quickly would be highly difficult. Major troop changes require extensive coordination across government agencies, Congress, and allies, which normally takes months. The compressed timeline makes a formal announcement or execution unlikely in the near term.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Trump has consistently questioned the U.S. troop presence in South Korea and named withdrawal a second-term objective, with Pentagon plans already under consideration. This signals the idea is both serious and actionable.
Files
"Announce a move" is easier than "implementing."
Files
Why do you think you're right?
At the same time, several major NATO and EU countries such as Germany, Italy, and Spain oppose sending troops, which weakens the sense of unity within the coalition. These governments prefer to help in other ways, for example by providing training, equipment, or financial assistance. Because a large group of member states are unwilling to commit ground forces, it becomes extremely difficult to build the political support needed for a wide or sustained deployment.
Why might you be wrong?
European leaders are under strong pressure to show that they are serious and that they will not be intimidated by Russia. Forming this coalition is meant to send a clear message that Europe can act with strength, especially at a time when the future of U.S. involvement is uncertain. Many people across Europe support the idea, and several governments have tied their political reputation to making it work. Senior leaders, including figures such as Macron and Starmer, have been publicly promoting the effort and pushing it forward at the highest levels of policymaking