Tanish-Agrawal

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Forecasted Questions

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 29, 2025 04:12AM UTC
(9 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	7%	-2%	+2%
No	95%	93%	+2%	-2%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 27, 2025 09:05PM UTC
(8 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	7%	3%	+4%	-5%
No	93%	97%	-4%	+5%

Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(19 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2025 02:46PM UTC
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	1%	+2%	-2%
No	97%	99%	-2%	+2%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(19 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 01:24PM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	2%	+0%	-1%
No	98%	98%	+0%	+1%

Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(19 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2025 02:49PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(19 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2025 10:11PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	Oct 31, 2025 to Apr 30, 2027	Jan 31, 2026	5%	-2%	+1%
No	97%	Oct 31, 2025 to Apr 30, 2027	Jan 31, 2026	95%	+2%	-1%

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(19 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 01:47PM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%