Continued focus on INDOPACOM and need to counter balance increasingly threatening alliance in region.
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0
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| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
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| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-3%)
Yes
99%
(+3%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I overpriced the time to change in the next 25+ days for the administration.
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Aug 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
74%
Less than or equal to 500
23%
Between 501 and 750, inclusive
3%
Between 751 and 1000, inclusive
0%
Between 1001 and 1250, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 1251
Why do you think you're right?
I think given the global attention and the preparation for an occupational COIN that will likely take place in September, there is limited #s of strikes that Israel.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There is unexpected violence or operation to take back hostages or target Hamas leadership in the end of August or the operation/mobilization efforts are earlier.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
64%
Less than 600
32%
Between 600 and 629, inclusive
4%
Between 630 and 659, inclusive
0%
Between 660 and 689, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 690
Why do you think you're right?
Mexican northern border being tightly monitored and militarized means that less instances of border town cartel violence. It will then be contained to the more and Mexico has taken steps to increasingly police this region.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Heavy summer fighting season, uptick in demand for drugs, feuds amongst cartel, government corruption schedule or altercation with cartels.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 20, 2025 10:08PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Aug 20, 2025 to Feb 20, 2026
99%
No
Aug 20, 2025 to Feb 20, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
I believe that there are several factors that would be used for evaluating the probability of a Taiwan contingency:
1. Politics and Economy are biased towards status quo; step changes are relatively hard to come by in the efficient and modern world.
2. Domestic Incentives Matter: This question partially rests on whether the Chinese public believes the credibility of Xi, the CCP, and the countries political self-understanding depends on re-unification. I don't think this is the case when preferences are actually revealed in the short-run.
3. China benefits by waiting: China has more time to conduct grey zone operations and wait for a more favorable leadership class in Taiwan over next decade.
4. China will sustain massive damage to its international reputation if it conducts an all-out assault on Taiwan and will be further isolated from world economy. This will likely hurt them in this current environment.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The domestic political conditions are worse and the intraparty dynamics between CCP hawks vis a vie Xi loyalists are more influential than previously considered. Intelligence and reliable reporting on CCP dynamics and conditions about the Chinese economy are notoriously hard to come by and a tail risk that the military and senior leaderships perceive the current moment as their best chance is relatively hard to price in relative to incumbent forces I laid out.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
99%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating priors from 98 --> 99
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Failing to account for exogeneous risk
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
Yes
10%
No
Why do you think you're right?
These trends are very hard to build supply. I think we are still likely on a real estate bubble but I don't think it will have popped by then.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I may be wrong because I am understimating the interest rate effect on home prices or that there is a asset bubble pop.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
I think global oil supply is already constrained to the EU. Russia has relatively little incentive to sanction the three countries further and China has increasingly partnered with the UAE in attempts to make in-roads in the ME. The sanctioning would likely be a U.S. lead coalition.
Why might you be wrong?
Tail-end risk, major escalations in the Middle East. Egypt and UAE are found to be sponsoring terrorism is one potential downside or exogeneous events.