SlamDunk02

Passage of time

The Associated Press called it a coup: "Madagascar’s president is ousted in a military coup after weeks of youth-led protests"

Updating base rate in light of new events

• A unit of Madagascar's military joined protestors who have been calling on the President to resign.

• Madagascar's President has described the situation as an attempted coup.

We can consult the UIUC Cline Center's Coup d'Etat Project data to see how similar situations have unfolded in the past. The situation in Madagascar closely resembles two elements in the Cline Center's typology of coups:

• Military Coup: "Coups initiated by military actors who are not a formal part of the governing apparatus (i.e., a military junta)."

• Popular Revolt: "An irregular regime change driven by widespread popular dissatisfaction expressed through large-scale civil unrest." [This description is slightly misleading--the attempted regime change doesn't have to succeed to qualify.]

The success rate for coup attempts that involve both the military and a popular element is 85%.

The success rate is similar (92%) if we limit our reference class to coup attempts in Africa.

Layering on Additional Information

• Adjust in "Yes" direction: The military unit that switched sides (CAPSAT) is reportedly an elite unit, which probably renders it more able to carry out a successful coup. The unit also has a track record of coup activity: it reportedly helped the current president gain power in 2009. Also, authoritarian leaders often rely on elite "coup-proofing" units to remain in power. Since CAPSAT helped the current president gain power, it stands to reason that they would be the most likely to fight back against a coup attempt. The fact that they have switched sides does not bode well for the president.

• Adjust in "Yes" direction: Madagascar's Senate reportedly announced that the President of the Senate has resigned. This indicates that either (1) the President has lost the support of the Senate (which would make it harder for him to remain in power), or (2) that the Senate was forced to make that announcement under duress, which suggests that the pro-coup forces are in a position of strength (which suggests that the coup is more likely to succeed).

Verdict

The very high success rate of military coups with a popular element, both inside and outside Africa, means I am comfortable betting on a successful coup outcome. The specifics of the case lead me to revise upward a few % as well. 95%