Confirmed previous forecast
-0.058561
Relative Brier Score
89
Forecasts
34
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 2 | 89 | 89 | 89 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 82 | 82 | 82 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 2 | 22 | 22 | 22 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 34 | 34 | 34 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
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Africa,
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New Prediction
Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Passage of time
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Why might you be wrong?
black swan
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 14, 2025 08:10PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100%
(+5%)
Yes
Oct 14, 2025 to Apr 14, 2026
0%
(-5%)
No
Oct 14, 2025 to Apr 14, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
The Associated Press called it a coup: "Madagascar’s president is ousted in a military coup after weeks of youth-led protests"
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Why might you be wrong?
Headline is revised as new information comes out.
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We were correct. But this is a rolling 6 month question. All of our Forecasts most important predictions are still pending. So we need to modify.
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 13, 2025 01:45AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
95%
(+53%)
Yes
Oct 13, 2025 to Apr 13, 2026
5%
(-53%)
No
Oct 13, 2025 to Apr 13, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Updating base rate in light of new events
We can consult the UIUC Cline Center's Coup d'Etat Project data to see how similar situations have unfolded in the past. The situation in Madagascar closely resembles two elements in the Cline Center's typology of coups:
- Military Coup: "Coups initiated by military actors who are not a formal part of the governing apparatus (i.e., a military junta)."
- Popular Revolt: "An irregular regime change driven by widespread popular dissatisfaction expressed through large-scale civil unrest." [This description is slightly misleading--the attempted regime change doesn't have to succeed to qualify.]
The success rate for coup attempts that involve both the military and a popular element is 85%.
| Military? | Popular? | Num. of Successes | Success Rate (%) |
| Yes | Yes | 35 | 85% |
| Yes | No | 239 | 51% |
| No | Yes | 47 | 83% |
The success rate is similar (92%) if we limit our reference class to coup attempts in Africa.
| Military? | Popular? | Num. of Successes | Success Rate (%) |
| Yes | Yes | 12 | 93% |
| Yes | No | 100 | 52% |
| No | Yes | 8 | 89% |
Layering on Additional Information
- Adjust in "Yes" direction: The military unit that switched sides (CAPSAT) is reportedly an elite unit, which probably renders it more able to carry out a successful coup. The unit also has a track record of coup activity: it reportedly helped the current president gain power in 2009. Also, authoritarian leaders often rely on elite "coup-proofing" units to remain in power. Since CAPSAT helped the current president gain power, it stands to reason that they would be the most likely to fight back against a coup attempt. The fact that they have switched sides does not bode well for the president.
- Adjust in "Yes" direction: Madagascar's Senate reportedly announced that the President of the Senate has resigned. This indicates that either (1) the President has lost the support of the Senate (which would make it harder for him to remain in power), or (2) that the Senate was forced to make that announcement under duress, which suggests that the pro-coup forces are in a position of strength (which suggests that the coup is more likely to succeed).
Verdict
The very high success rate of military coups with a popular element, both inside and outside Africa, means I am comfortable betting on a successful coup outcome. The specifics of the case lead me to revise upward a few % as well. 95%
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Why might you be wrong?
It appears that media have not independently verified the CAPSAT unit's claim to have taken control of the entire military. It is therefore possible that the unit are overstating their level of control. Coup plotters have an incentive to depict their attempt as a fait accompli--a done deal--in order to dissuade attempts by elements of the regime to reverse the coup.
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You were correct. Defection of key military unit led to military backing coup. The leader fled.
Thanks for the numbers. Great empirical analysis. Seems like when important.military Units defect, after mass uprising, removal of leader certain.
The worst situation is when the military splits...often leads to civil war for years. Sudan may represent such a case but the dictatorship of Omar Bashar institutionalized 2 rival.military forces
Madagascar's president has left the country on French military plane - French radio RFI - https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/madagascar-president-rajoelina-address-nation-monday-evening-2025-10-13/
These African coups can arise quickly. Once the military joins game over
Thanks for your interesting analysis
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