Confirmed previous forecast
-0.007257
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 79 | 79 | 79 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 65 | 65 | 65 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Sep 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Oct 29, 2025 04:42PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 29, 2025 to Mar 29, 2026
98%
(0%)
No
Sep 29, 2025 to Mar 29, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 29, 2025 04:42PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 29, 2025 to Mar 29, 2026
98%
(0%)
No
Sep 29, 2025 to Mar 29, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
2%
(-77%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
91%
(+70%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
7%
(+7%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
As of 23 Sept, the CDC lists 1,514 confirmed cases. https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html
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Why might you be wrong?
The CDC is increasingly hard to trust due to its current leadership so it is possible statistics could be revised downward. It is also possible that updated statistics will include more than expected confirmed cases. (https://www.theatlantic.com/health/2025/09/cdc-alternative-health-advice/684245/)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 59
19%
(-23%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
72%
(+31%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
9%
(-8%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?
As of 29 Sept, the number of cases was at 71 so it seems likely that there will be between 70 and 79 cases (https://euvsdisinfo.eu/disinformation-cases/?disinfo_language[]=German&date=01.10.2024%20-%2029.09.2025).
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If you remove any particular types of cases (e.g., for being anti-Kremlin), the number of cases could go down. Or if Russia decides to ramp up its info campaigns there could be more cases than anticipated.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
36%
(-4%)
Less than or equal to 1
63%
(+6%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
1%
(-2%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Even late into Sept, this is a tricky forecast because there are major storms forming off the east coast of the US so it seems likely that a hurricane of some strength will hit the continental US soon. However, so far, major storms have been less prevalent than in previous years, and have not made landfall in the continental US at a strength of 3 or more. (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/hurricane-humberto-grows-category-5-bring-life-threatening-surf-east-c-rcna234132; https://usafacts.org/answers/how-active-is-the-latest-hurricane-season/country/united-states/)
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Why might you be wrong?
At least two major hurricanes are occurring now and they are close to the US so it's possible landfall will be possible by 30 Sept (https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/29/weather/hurricane-forecast-imelda-humberto-track-climate-hnk)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-2%)
Argentina
5%
(-4%)
Bolivia
5%
(0%)
Ecuador
Why do you think you're right?
While all three face precarious economic circumstances, the countries have not defaulted yet. Trump has also offered to support the Argentinian government in the near-term (https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/25/trump-argentina-milei-bessent-republicans-bailout-00581449).
Files
Why might you be wrong?
All three countries face dire economic situations. (e.g., https://www.state.gov/reports/2025-investment-climate-statements/bolivia; https://www.ainvest.com/news/assessing-impact-political-instability-ecuador-debt-market-2509/)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 49
0%
(0%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
27%
(-5%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
41%
(0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
32%
(+5%)
More than or equal to 80
Why do you think you're right?
It's possible perceived threat will be higher than previously expected due to Russia sending drones over NATO countries, thereby increasing the perceived threat to NATO countries. (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c75qeqr5905o)
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Public opinion could remain relatively unchanged due to either assumptions that Russia is only focused on Ukraine and relatively weak (e.g., https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/25/world/russia-export-fuel-ban-ukranian-drones-intl)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-9%)
Yes
99%
(+9%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
At this time, this number of casualties has not occurred.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Last minute confrontation could occur however that seems unlikely.
Files