BEV market share has had a slow increase from 15% to 15.4% from Jan to May 2025, unlikely that it would jump another almost 5%, given previous year month to month swings were never more than 2%.
0.327448
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jun 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
New regulation incentivizing BEV use.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Why do you think you're right?
US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites signals a breakdown in diplomatic engagement and possibility of further escalation by Iran
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Iran may enter into a new nuclear deal as a de-escalation tactic.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
Yes
88%
No
Why do you think you're right?
2022 and 2023 numbers are below 37M, only 2024 exceeded this number. In 2025 (since Trump took office) travel numbers have been lower than in 2024. Some countries have issues travel warnings to the US. Recent media coverage surrounding DHS/ICE/deportations does not paint a favorable picture for foreigners in the US.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Travelers are less impacted by news and politics than expected. Travelers made travel plans before travel warnings were issued.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
27%
Yes
73%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Last year 4/12 of the months had 50k or more, and the average was less than 50k/month. Since Trump took office, average numbers don't look very different. Further decreased score because DHS is running out of money.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Increased coast guard drug seizures driven by Trump's stated focus on cracking down on drug trafficking (especially on US-MEX border).
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Newest polls show Mamdani winning, although 2 previous polls show Cuomo winning. Even if Cuomo wins, it seems unlikely this would happen in 5 rounds or fewer, given the close race (the 2021 mayoral race had 8 rounds of voting).
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Several high-profile democrats have come out supporting Cuomo, which will likely influence low-information voters or swing voters to rank Cuomo higher.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Lack of Republican consensus, little time left before 7/1, Johnson said members would have 72 hours to review the legislation before a vote.
Why might you be wrong?
Pressure from Trump to pass it as quickly as possible, although Trump stated deadline is 7/4.