Confirmed previous forecast
0.104594
Relative Brier Score
67
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 67 | 67 | 67 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 55 | 55 | 55 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 23 | 23 | 23 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
(0%)
Yes
65%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Aug 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(+15%)
Less than or equal to 1
20%
(-10%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(-5%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Updating my previous forecast to account for the time passed.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Updating my previous forecast to account for the time passed.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming my previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Confirming my previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 500
19%
(-32%)
Between 501 and 750, inclusive
51%
(+11%)
Between 751 and 1000, inclusive
30%
(+21%)
Between 1001 and 1250, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1251
Why do you think you're right?
Updating the forecast upward, as there has been no ceasefire despite pressure and condemnation from the international community. On the contrary, Israel has launched an operation to take control of Gaza, which may lead to further violence.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
This is an active and ongoing conflict, and the situation can change within a matter of hours.
Files