fluxcap

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2025 Season Stats

0.097503

Relative Brier Score

15

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 15 15 15
Comments 0 0 15 15 15
Questions Forecasted 0 0 14 14 14
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 0
 Definitions
New Badge
fluxcap earned a new badge:

Star Commenter - Jun 2025

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Latest polls/simulations.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

They are often wrong.

Files
New Prediction
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
fluxcap made their 2nd forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Sep 13, 2025 05:27PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30% (+15%)
Yes
Jun 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026
70% (-15%)
No
Jun 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026
Why do you think you're right?

Recent headlines.

Files
Why might you be wrong?
Regime's survival calculus.
Files
New Prediction
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
fluxcap made their 1st forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Sep 8, 2025 10:13AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Jun 8, 2025 to Dec 8, 2026
90%
No
Jun 8, 2025 to Dec 8, 2026
Why do you think you're right?

Long period of time.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Attribution challenges.

Files
New Prediction
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
fluxcap made their 1st forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Jul 8, 2025 10:07AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
Yes
Jun 8, 2025 to Dec 8, 2025
80%
No
Jun 8, 2025 to Dec 8, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Gabbard testimony.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Not tracking region closely.

Files
New Prediction
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
fluxcap made their 1st forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Jul 8, 2025 10:00AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
Yes
Jun 8, 2025 to Dec 8, 2025
85%
No
Jun 8, 2025 to Dec 8, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

New maritime concept.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Not sure.

Files
New Badge
fluxcap earned a new badge:

Questions Forecasted

For forecasting on 10 questions!
New Prediction
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
fluxcap made their 1st forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Jul 8, 2025 09:21AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
Yes
Jun 8, 2025 to Dec 8, 2025
80%
No
Jun 8, 2025 to Dec 8, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Reporting on Ivory Coast/Burkina Faso/Others troubles + upcoming elections.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Not generally well informed about African politics.

Files
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
fluxcap made their 1st forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Jul 8, 2025 09:10AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Jun 8, 2025 to Dec 8, 2025
90%
No
Jun 8, 2025 to Dec 8, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Not ready yet.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Trade talks could collapse.

Files
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
fluxcap made their 1st forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
5%
Estonia
5%
Latvia
10%
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?

NATO.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Times we live in.

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Files
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