Global warning is making hurricanes and other weather phenomenon stronger when they appear
2.588767
Relative Brier Score
21
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Less than or equal to 1
37%
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
49%
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
4%
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There is always a chance for an anomaly
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(0%)
Yes
75%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
33%
(0%)
Yes
67%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
28%
(0%)
Yes
72%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Less than 250
12%
(0%)
Between 250 and 349, inclusive
42%
(0%)
Between 350 and 449, inclusive
36%
(0%)
Between 450 and 549, inclusive
8%
(0%)
More than or equal to 550
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The use of sanctions is becoming the weapon of choice by most countries in order to influence policy on others. As these countries are located in areas of heavy policy actions we may expect that they will not be able to keep everyone happy and so they will be subject to sanctions
Why might you be wrong?
Perhaps restraint may prevail as sanctions are not having the desired effect in other countries