NOAA forecast are a 50% chance higher than usual hurricane activity. The range of major hurricanes is 2-5 at the beginning of August, so the landfall probabilities are less. I still deviate from the crowd forecast by giving a higher probability to the 2-3 range.
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New Badge
Star Commenter - Aug 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
38%
(+6%)
Less than or equal to 1
48%
(+10%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
13%
(-10%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
1%
(-6%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I have a much higher probability than the crowd for 4-5 range. It is still unlikely in my opinion, but if I am wrong it it being overly pessimistic about hurricane activity. No good new insights because I lost my contacts at NOAA due to early retirements.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-5%)
Yes
100%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
The EU didn't reach that level previously and current energy developments make it even less likely. While it is silly to give a potential event a 0% probability, as a statistician I'd always hedge, but this time I give too small of a chance.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Even the most unlikely event could happen, it just that I don't see a plausible scenario for the EU to increase its imports.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
12%
(-14%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
55%
(+14%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
27%
(0%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
5%
(0%)
More than or equal to 40%
Why do you think you're right?
The range has narrowed, making my previously larger probability of under 20% less likely.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Zelensky made a major mistake in the fight against corruption. While an unforced error, probably too small to lower the opinion at a larger scale
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-20%)
Less than or equal to 500
18%
(0%)
Between 501 and 750, inclusive
34%
(-3%)
Between 751 and 1000, inclusive
38%
(+21%)
Between 1001 and 1250, inclusive
5%
(+2%)
More than or equal to 1251
Why do you think you're right?
The baseline would be around 1000, but I previously had a high probability for lower rates, more reflective of periods like the ceasefire. However, instead of a continuing calming, the situation deteriorated disastrously.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Compared to the crowd, I still give it a higher probability of low counts. Probably I am too optimistic and therefore wrong. Yet there is still a possibility of a breakthrough, currently efforts from Egypt and Qatar.
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jul 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
0%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Why do you think you're right?
More a rhetorical standoff than anything real.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Maduro can do weird stuff
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
99%
(+4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
tensions are elsewhere
Files
Why might you be wrong?
no insights
Files
Why do you think you're right?
I thought it could be used as a tariff negotiation tool, but that didn't happen. The defense authorization act also would seem to limit an actual (rather than just claimed/announced) withdrawal.
Why might you be wrong?
Trump often acts in violation of rules or laws, so it is always possible that he makes a claim. But after the tariff issue seems to be resolved, I give it a very lower probability.