Based on the CDC website, as of 24 Sep there were 1514 cases in the U.S. I am making this forecast very late in the forecasting window, so I consider it highly likely that the total number of cases within the time window of evaluation will fall in the 1500-1649 window (since there is only one week of accounting left in the CDC tracker between this forecast and when the window will close).
1.058886
Relative Brier Score
35
Forecasts
7
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 35 | 35 | 35 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 41 | 41 | 41 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Sep 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 1349
0%
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
100%
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
0%
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There could be a significant outbreak in the last week of September that increases the count beyond the 1649 range I selected in my forecast, though no news coverage has indicated outbreaks that would increase the count so drastically. The CDC indicates there were higher rates of measles outbreaks in March 2025 that have subsided leading to September 2025.
Source: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The ceasefire reached between Pakistan and India in May 2025 seems to have held, preventing continued hostilities and uniformed casualties.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Based on the crowd forecast and the lack of any news coverage on hostilities & resulting uniformed deaths between India and Pakistan, I do not think there is likelihood of this forecast being incorrect.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Less than or equal to 1
0%
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
As someone living on the east coast of Florida, this is a topic I track closely! So far in 2025, only one major storm has made landfall in the continental US - and this was Tropical Storm Chantal, so it was not at the level of a category three Hurricane. Hoping this trend continues through the end of the hurricane season this year!
Source: https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2025-09-24-2025-hurricane-season-tracks-lucky-so-far
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Why might you be wrong?
According to the National Hurricane Center, there are no projected hurricanes that will make landfall in the continental US between now and 30 Sep, so it is extremely unlikely that I am wrong.
Source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2025&basin=atl
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
While the Trump administration and Secretary Hegseth have certainly introduced new ideas and policy considerations into the defense environment, they have not made any recent announcements regarding reducing the number of U.S. troops anywhere overseas (to include the South Korea, or the Republic of Korea - ROK). With Secretary Hegseth calling all general officer and flag officer (FOGOs) commanders (plus their enlisted advisors) to an in-person meeting in the D.C. area on 30 Sep, I assess it to be highly unlikely that they would simultaneously announce a troop drawdown anywere.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The Trump administration and Secretary Hesgeth have proven that they break military and political norms, so they could introduce a surprise policy decision into the conversation between now and 30 Sep.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 600
0%
Between 600 and 629, inclusive
0%
Between 630 and 659, inclusive
20%
Between 660 and 689, inclusive
80%
More than or equal to 690
Why do you think you're right?
According to ACLED data, there were 169 events of political violence in Mexico from Aug 8-15. Assuming this weekly average represents the monthly rate, that produces a monthly level of 748 events of political violence.
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Why might you be wrong?
I am not familiar with Mexico's current context and ongoing acts of political violence, so I am making this assessment using averages from ACLED data.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 500
0%
Between 501 and 750, inclusive
0%
Between 751 and 1000, inclusive
2%
Between 1001 and 1250, inclusive
98%
More than or equal to 1251
Why do you think you're right?
ACLED's Middle East overview report dated August 8, 2025 indicates that IDF "airstrikes increased from 548 in June to 599 in July." Source: https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1583-how-many-incidents-of-political-violence-will-occur-in-gaza-in-august-2025
News reporting that I've been following on NPR and Humans of New York indicate that the pace of violence and deaths has not diminished in August. The ACLED data explorer indicates that the week of Aug 8-15 contained 311 events of political violence in Palestine, and the indicators for the first week of August indicate roughly 282 events. Projecting out this pace with the assumption that it reflects the average pace for the month of August, I average roughly 42 events per day in August - reaching 1,302 total events for the month.
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Why might you be wrong?
The data are not yet available for the second half of August, so I don't know if the trend in daily levels of political violence has changed compared to the first half of August.
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Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
Given the lack of any global news on increasing tensions between India and China that could lead to conflict, at this late stage of the forecasting window I think it highly unlikely that my forecast is wrong.