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| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
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New Prediction
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
81%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
1%
(0%)
30 days
1%
(0%)
31-60 days
6%
(0%)
61-90 days
11%
(0%)
91 days or more
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-31%)
Less than 62%
0%
(-67%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
0%
(-2%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
100%
(+100%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
Tarriffs did not evolve as I expected so now I am updating my forecast to reflect current conditions.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The world feels deeply unstable right now.
Files
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Jul 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jul 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
(+2%)
Yes
5%
(-2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Increasing Yes a little bit, because there are about 85K acres left to burn over the next 6 days. Precipitation forecasts across the Western US are minimal.
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Why might you be wrong?
Fires are inherently unpredictable.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-3%)
Yes
99%
(+3%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
NerdWallet claims that as of July 24th, the national average is $3.162. Time is running out for even major changes in oil production to spike the average price past $3.6/gal.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Nothing new.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Affirm for now
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Why might you be wrong?
Affirm for now
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
(0%)
Yes
30%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
affirm for now
Files
Why might you be wrong?
affirm for now
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
99%
(+4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
As July comes to a close, Iran met with 3 key european leaders to discuss nuclear proliferation. If anything they showed proclivity to abandon non-proliferation goals if sanctions were reapplied. So I think the chance of a new Iran-US nuclear deal by the end of August feels like fantasy at this point.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Trump remains a wildcard in everything geopolitical.
Files