ColonelKernel

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(23)00319-1/fulltext

Looking at how many Lab-acquired infections (LAIs) between 2000-2021 there were 309 individuals in 94 reports for 51 pathogens with 8 fatalities across 5 instances. This mean that every year you can expect about 14 outbreaks on a given year that's about a 4% chance of an LAI on any given day. These are not deliberate or widespread attacks. I'll have to do more research to decide if an additional 16% risk is a reasonable forecast for the risk of a bad actor choosing a biological operation as their means of attack. What can be assumed is that the risk is increasing over time due to the proliferation of access to tools due to cost and democratization of knowledge for bioengineering. Additionally, there are regulatory risks not keeping up with emerging tech particularly the speed of implementation of AI.

Crossed the threshold and the rate is far to low to hit 1650. Even if there is an out break in the next few days it is not likely to cross the 1650 mark in time. 

Moving to 0 due to no change in relations and very little remaining time. Here is a recent opinion piece that acknowledges that there was tension but that relations are thawing which is in alignment with previous forecasts.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/opinion-india-s-thaw-in-relations-with-china-is-nothing-to-fear/ar-AA1MwAXg?ocid=BingNewsVerp

We are already at 1497 according to CNN virtually removing the less than 1499 brackets. The only real option is between 1500-1649 bucket, the only reason more than 1649 has a small chance is due to the very small odds that there is another outbreak in a low vaccine area. With some cases in Utah recently that scenario remains unlikely but possible.
https://edition.cnn.com/health/measles-cases-us-dg

Updating and reducing odds of multiple major hurricanes due to there being none so far this season and only 2 weeks left to forecast. 

Confirming forecast: IF something were to happen it would go against the cesefire that has held since May. There is a minor update that India-Pakistan did handle this bilaterally without US discussion something that was already known, however, there remains a not completely closed door to reengagement so long as India is uncertain if all terrorist camps/activities are gone. For that I'll raise my probability by 1%.
https://www.timesnownews.com/india/pakistan-makes-big-admission-ishaq-dar-says-india-never-agreed-to-third-party-mediation-on-ceasefire-during-operation-sindoor-pahalgam-attack-article-152834255

Remarks by Gen. Xavier Brunson, commander of the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK)

"Our alliance is not a relic of the past, it's a foundation for the future. We're not just reacting to threats. We're shaping the environment. We're setting the terms of stability in the Indo-Pacific" 

"These exercises send an unmistakable message. We are united, interoperable and ready,"

These quotes emphasize that the US is currently active in South Korea and shows no interest in lowering our presence in the short term.

https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/southkorea/defense/20250917/usfk-commander-calls-for-adaptability-in-alliance-modernization-with-s-korea?prnewsidx=748a39ec-ffaf-11ef-b492-02eed468a967

Holding forecast will zero out if no movement in two weeks.

We are already at 1408 as of August 26th. This goes well above the 100 per month average needed to be over 1349 the question now is if with the last week of August and the whole month of September left what the rate will likely be. There were spikes in March that have declined over summer. With people going back to school this month it is possible to see another big spike or precautions will prove successful with flattening new case rates. If things have flattened, then there is a chance that there are less than 90 cases over the remaining weeks. However, if things pick up even slightly due to going back to school then there is a very good chance of outbreaks.