mikeymoore

Hard to imagine level/intensity of fighting would reduce to such an extent so as to give confidence to such a Coalition. Also risk US admin would oppose, seeing it as a trap to compel U.S. forces. 

Given the ease of access to underlying lab materials and the expected scaling potential of AI, the capacity for a highly motivated individual or group to successfully do this are only growing, and the determination/capacity of governments to prevent it are not likely to keep up. 

With U.S. attention focused elsewhere, DPRK is not likely to want to generate undue attention. It is benefitting from its growing relations with Moscow, hedging effectively its relations with Beijing, and reaping the dividends of allied divisions. The technical need for a test is not urgent. If DPRK decides to stick its chin out, it is more likely to do so by making a territorial claim or move in the Northern Line Limit, as hinted to by changes to its constitution in September 2024. 

With U.S. attention focused elsewhere, DPRK is not likely to want to generate undue attention. It is benefitting from its growing relations with Moscow, hedging effectively its relations with Beijing, and reaping the dividends of allied divisions. The technical need for a test is not urgent. If DPRK decides to stick its chin out, it is more likely to do so by making a territorial claim or move in the Northern Line Limit, as hinted to by changes to its constitution in September 2024. 

The average lifespan of an Iranian male is 75.7 years. The SL is 85 with known health issues. I think it extremely unlikely he flees or is overthrown over the coming year; I simply think he's run into some actuarial deadlines.