Forecasted Questions
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 05, 2025 03:41PM UTC
(7 months ago)
May 05, 2025 03:41PM UTC
(7 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 0% | 68% | -68% | +11% |
| 30 days | 35% | 5% | +30% | -4% |
| 31-60 days | 17% | 5% | +12% | -3% |
| 61-90 days | 21% | 5% | +16% | -1% |
| 91 days or more | 27% | 16% | +11% | -2% |
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 05, 2025 03:48PM UTC
(7 months ago)
May 05, 2025 03:48PM UTC
(7 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 7% | +13% | -2% |
| No | 80% | 93% | -13% | +2% |
Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 05, 2025 04:22PM UTC
(7 months ago)
May 05, 2025 04:22PM UTC
(7 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 1% | +9% | -49% |
| No | 90% | 99% | -9% | +49% |