off balance USA makes this a potential window - particularly if it looks like USA will restabilise it may make sense for Beijing to act
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Star Commenter - Apr 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 9, 2025 05:58PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Apr 9, 2025 to Oct 9, 2025
90%
No
Apr 9, 2025 to Oct 9, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
China may still feel it has time on its side
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 9, 2025 05:47PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
Yes
Apr 9, 2025 to Oct 9, 2026
50%
No
Apr 9, 2025 to Oct 9, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
long time period and high instability
Files
Why might you be wrong?
unpredictable global situation
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 9, 2025 05:45PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
80%
Yes
Apr 9, 2025 to Oct 9, 2025
20%
No
Apr 9, 2025 to Oct 9, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
high coup frequency + destabilised environment
Files
Why might you be wrong?
stochasticity
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Angola
1%
Kenya
0%
Ethiopia
4%
Nigeria
Why do you think you're right?
though unlikely all are possible, though Ethiopia probability <1% due to low debt and recent default.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
tariff disruption to bond markets
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Why do you think you're right?
unlikely to be able to administer a nationwide election before 1 July given earthquake
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Still not impossible
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
No evidence of political change
Files
Why might you be wrong?
natural death or lone wolf assassination
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
Yes
20%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Disruption of pax americana makes this an ideal time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
America may restabilise, china may focus elsewhere, unlikely though...
Files
Why do you think you're right?
unclear base rate - but seems unlikely given Russian exhaustion in Ukraine
Why might you be wrong?