Africa growing importance on global chessboard
1.236154
Relative Brier Score
9
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - May 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
Yes
35%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
China goes into a major economic problem/contraction, forcing re-focus on closer to home priorities
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 2, 2025 07:42PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
Yes
May 2, 2025 to Nov 2, 2026
85%
No
May 2, 2025 to Nov 2, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Risky, could jeopardize slow but steady progress Putin is making in Ukraine etc
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Putin would like to test NATO cohesion under Trump
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Egypt too important to collapse, will be bailed out if needed
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Always a chance and inflation quite high already
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Bioengineering progressing at an accelerated pace with AI. That combined with dispersion of tools and destabilizing forces in today's world suggest some mistake or intentional work here could happen
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Impossible to know for sure how this will play out, and there is a combined global interest in preventing another pandemic, etc.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
2%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
10%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
13%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
75%
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
With Trump popularity plunging and trad war stiffening foreign resolve, low appetite for a deal. Minerals deal decreases odds US will accept terms Russia is happy with.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Some crisis could prompt some speedier resolution.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
85%
No
Why do you think you're right?
AI czar Sacks on record saying regulation primarily benefits larger incumbents
Files
Why might you be wrong?
AI too important, makes rapid progress to AGI in 2025 and/or an AI crisis event triggers a change in policy
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
Yes
10%
No
Why do you think you're right?
New revelations almost everyday about ineffectiveness of existing export controls
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Trade deal is cut that reduces restrictions
Files
New Badge
Why do you think you're right?
Some type of contraction is already underway, and geopolitical tensions seem to be rising
Why might you be wrong?
Central banks pivot quickly to stimulate in the wake of a sudden crisis