almost over
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 52 | 52 | 52 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 44 | 44 | 44 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 26 | 26 | 26 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+56%)
Less than or equal to 1
0%
(-47%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(-9%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Not today
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-11%)
Yes
99%
(+11%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Hit submit too early
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Stop submitting without wanting to.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-24%)
Yes
99%
(+24%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Seems little desire to get involved other than by proxy.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Poland may get involved leading to others.
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jul 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(+70%)
Yes
25%
(-70%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
There were nearly 60k seized in June and seems like there is significant pressure to produce statistics.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There may be a downturn in due to recent immigration events.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
There appears to be limited desire for legislation and moving it through both houses other than "The Act"
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There may be a turn around with governance.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-9%)
Yes
99%
(+9%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Doesn't seem like things will change in the near future.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There may be an agreement as the president is in Europe.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Almost over
Why might you be wrong?
Almost over