Confirmed previous forecast
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0
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Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 3 | 40 | 40 | 40 |
| Comments | 0 | 2 | 32 | 32 | 32 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
4%
(-20%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
96%
(+20%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
Updating based on passage of time and new employment information
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I think it’s unlikely to change significantly in the next month, but if a major event occurs that effects multiple countries I could be wrong
Files
New Comment
Quitting this question due to methodology changes. As it stands, this question is closer to forecasting the next benchmark update than it is of forecasting llm capabilities.
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Aug 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
24%
(0%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
76%
(0%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 250
0%
(0%)
Between 250 and 349, inclusive
0%
(-10%)
Between 350 and 449, inclusive
100%
(+21%)
Between 450 and 549, inclusive
0%
(-11%)
More than or equal to 550
Why do you think you're right?
It’s currently at 495 with the weekend ahead before the month ends. Breeches are lower over the weekends so I don’t expect it to rise 55 more in the next three days
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It’s possible it spikes today and coasts the rest of the weekend to 550+
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
March 31st is ~4 months from now. Based on this overview (table 1), new medical devices are automatically evaluated as class III devices and would typically undergo the pre-market approval (PMA) or, if it has a predicate technology (the FDA has approved several devices for detecting contrast agents in CT scans) the device can go through the pre-market notification (PMN) process. If LLM-medical devices go through the PMA process, I think it is very unlikely to be approved by March 31st since it would need to obtain an IDE (which alone can take 3-6 months) and IRB approval, and then go through the review process which can take 180 days. If it goes through the PMN process, it could be within the ~4 month timeline (especially if it has already been filed at the time of writing).
Additionally, in April there were mass layoffs at the FDA that are expected to impact devices in development. I anticipate the combination of reduced FDA capacity, and the potential for LLM hallucination will result in a PMN process and approval timelines beyond March 2026.
Why might you be wrong?
It's very possible that there are devices being reviewed currently that are close to approval already. The FDA doesn't have public data on the current devices they are reviewing, so it's possible the event could happen at any given point over the course of the time frame.