Moving towards the crowd forecast. I'm not very confident in my previous forecast.
0.167161
Relative Brier Score
17
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jun 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
42%
(-15%)
Yes
58%
(+15%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I don't see any reason that the figure would rise more than 30% over the 15% or so reported last quarter, or in April.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Regulatory pressure or a sudden rise in gas prices due to the Israel-Iran conflict could prompt an increase in BEV registrations.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
85%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Current gas price is far below $3.600. Because of the Israel-Iran ceasefire, I put a low probability on conflict in the Middle East driving up gas prices. Will update down as time passes if the ceasefire continues to hold.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The Israel-Iran conflict resumes.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
Yes
92%
No
Why do you think you're right?
In most recent polls, Cuomo only wins when there are only two candidates remaining, as most polls show his lead decreasing. So, I believe the resolution of this question depends mostly on how many candidates are eliminated in the first round. I did a very cursory look at some recent polls on the NYT's list and I only found one where more than one candidate is eliminated in the first round.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If many candidates are eliminated in the first round, then Cuomo could win earlier. He might also win a round earlier than expected by winning before there are two candidates left.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
74%
Yes
26%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The base rate is 64% of the years 2000-2024. I don't see a clear trend in acres burned. However, the "Significant Wildland Fire Potential" graph (pointed out by @CodenameFlamingo) for July 2025 looks worse than the one for July 2024, when 2M acres burned. Also, the western states look like they got less rain in December 2024-May 2025 than in December 2023-May 2024.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Weather is hard to predict, and increased rainfall can increase vegetation growth and thus wildfire burned area.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
Yes
94%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The latest May 1st-18th approval rating is 43%, and his approval numbers seem to have fallen in the last few weeks. US involvement Iran seems more likely than not to hurt his approval ratings, since a majority of Americans disapprove of involvement. The BBB seems unpopular as well.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The conflict with Iran or the BBB could end up increasing Trump's approval ratings.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Only one lethal confrontation since 1975. It seems very unlikely that another will occur in the next three months, especially in light of the deal reached in 2024 and the complete lack of incident since.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The details of the deal are unknown, and maybe less stable than expected.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Going with higher odds of <1350 than the Crowd Forecast because of summer break reducing transmission and current outbreaks seeming to die out.
Why might you be wrong?