Too great a detriment to USMIL in the Pacific.
-0.007249
Relative Brier Score
7
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jun 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
Yes
75%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Shifting priorities elsewhere.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Estonia
2%
Latvia
2%
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
Russia hasn’t gained enough ground in Ukraine to move on to other efforts, blowback, and strained resources.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
They might decide this would help project strength.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
19%
Yes
81%
No
Why do you think you're right?
This would be too risky for the EU in terms of potential domino effects.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Macron might be able to convince other leadership.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Spain won’t be convinced to agree.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The EU may find a way to pressure or convince (through incentives) naysayers like Spain.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 27, 2025 11:08PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
80%
Yes
Jun 27, 2025 to Dec 27, 2025
20%
No
Jun 27, 2025 to Dec 27, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Instability due to economic and security issues will make a coup likely in several countries.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There will be instability in certain countries, but it might come out in other ways, not necessarily as a coup,
Files
New Badge
Why do you think you're right?
Strained resources.
Why might you be wrong?
Might be viewed as a necessary effort to project strength.