Confirmed previous forecast
-0.000593
Relative Brier Score
14
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 1 | 15 | 14 | 88 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 22 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 16 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 1, 2025 02:34AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 1, 2025 to May 1, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Nov 1, 2025 to May 1, 2026
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 1, 2025 02:34AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 1, 2025 to May 1, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 1, 2025 to May 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 1, 2025 12:01AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Oct 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 1, 2025 12:01AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Oct 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 1, 2025 03:31AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 1, 2025 to Feb 1, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Aug 1, 2025 to Feb 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Almost no possibility. The ceasefire talks are effectively stalled and won’t advance before the end of the year.
Why might you be wrong?
I put 1% just in case something unexpected